The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors kicked off the Western Conference Finals Monday (Golden State won the opener), and many people see this series as the “real NBA Finals.”
So let’s break it down.
After thousands of Accuscore simulations, our computers say the Golden State Warriors are 70.1% likely to win the series.
While Houston isn’t hopeless, the gulf between the Warriors and the Rockets (who finished the season with the best record in the NBA), is just too great.
The Warriors have a 39.1% chance of winning the series in either four or five games. As a reminder, the Rockets have only a 29.9% chance of winning the series.
In fact, the longer the series goes, the better the chance Houston has for pulling an upset.
See more AccuScore NBA picks here: NBA Playoffs Picks
Interestingly, the Rockets have a 14.2% chance of winning in 7 games versus the Warriors’ 13.5% chance. Thus, if you take the Rockets, you’re hoping it goes 7.
As far as probable outcomes:
— The Warriors are 26.3% likely to win in 5 games
— The Warriors are 17.4% likely to win in 6 games
— The Rockets were 52.4% likely to win game 1 (which our simulations got incorrect)
Ultimately, AccuScore calculates that the probability of Houston beating the Warriors four times at about 30%.
In other words, don’t count on it.