Expect a close game in Phoenix. We’ve got the Seattle Seahawks winning only 51% of simulations, and the Arizona Cardinals 48% of simulations.
In close games, turnover margin is especially important. The Seahawks commit fewer turnovers in 50% of simulations and they go on to win 75% when they take care of the ball. The Arizona Cardinals wins 73% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers.
Chris Carson is averaging 38 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (19% chance), then he helps his team win 76%.
David Johnson is averaging 92 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (40% chance) then he helps his team win 70%.
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